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The Result of the Internal Voting Offers the Best Scenario for Lowering the Age of Criminal Responsibility

Analysts consider that Bordaberry will no longer be the only one intending to amend the Constitution

13 de junio de 2014 13:11 hs
El Observador | Redacción

Por  Redacción

Lacalle Pou y Javier García dicen sí a la baja
Lacalle Pou y Javier García dicen "sí a la baja"

“There are two strong voices now instead of one,” they indicate, referring to a more favourable scenario for the amendment of the constitution.

Political scientists Adolfo Garcé, Romeo Pérez Antón and Eduardo Bottinelli said to El Observador that the result of the voting that took place last Sunday June 1st constitutes the best political scenario to obtain the majority in the plebiscite for the amendment of the constitution to lower the age of criminal responsibility.

The candidate of the Partido Colorado Pedro Bordaberry is no longer alone, as the candidate from Partido Nacional, Luis Lacalle Pou, had also shown his support to this proposal.

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“The current situation is the best scenario for the constitutional amendment. It will depend on who cast a vote in favour of it or don´t. But since the presidential candidate is in favour of the proposal, one can assume that Lacalle Pou supporters will vote for the constitutional amendment, and despite the fact that Larrañaga supporters may not vote for it, it is still the best scenario,” expressed Garcé.

“There are two strong voices now instead of one. One is from the party that to this day shows the greater voting intentions: Partido Nacional. It is no longer Bordaberry with minority from Partido Nacional. The situation of Partido Nacional with Larrañaga, who is against it, was different to the current situation with Lacalle Pou, who is in favour,” added Garcé.

Romeo Pérez Antón agreed with Garcé, “From the perspective of those supporting the amendment, this is the best possible scenario”. Eduardo Bottinelli, from Instituto Factum, expressed, “By looking at the candidates, it is clear that before there was only one candidate supporting the lowering of the age of crime responsibility and two that did not: Tabaré Vázquez and Larrañaga”. Still, the political expert made a remark; “Larrañaga as presidential candidate would be against, but the formula would be made up by somebody who is in favour and lines would be divided. That does not change. (…) As the one tipping the scales is a divided party, its effect is less”. The three political experts considered that once the formula for Partido Nacional is determined, it will be easier to have a clear picture regarding the plebiscite and the attitude of said party. Still, they all agree that the candidate as vice-president for the party will not express a different opinion to avoid problems within the party. “It cannot turn into a problem,” stated Bottinelli.

Key Ballots

Pérez Antón states that “if political groups with that position do not hand out complete votes with the ballot for the constitutional amendment, the constitutional amendment will not be passed. (…) If voters did not receive that ballots, the number of those taking it in the voting booth and adding it to what they received from the parties or to the vote they will cast, will not be high”.

Garcé agreed, stating that the final result “depends a lot on the ballot, on those kinds of organizational details”. “Being in favor of the lowering of the age of criminal responsibility is different from people recalling to take the ballot or to place both ballots in the envelope. There are lots of people who may be in favour of the lowering and that may not place the ballot at that moment. This kind of referendum also implies another component that is that people not always remember to take the corresponding ballot,” he said.

One of the negotiations to be dealt with within Partido Nacional is whether the ballot will be contained in the lists of Alianza Nacional. When asked about this topic, Bottinelli explained, “We will have to see the evolution of all this. Negotiations have just begun, we will have to see which is the position of Larrañaga in the end, which is the impact of the June 1st voting on Alianza Nacional. There are many elements”.

A day after being elected presidential candidate for Partido Nacional, Lacalle Pou said to Subrayado, “Believing that the lowering of the age of criminal responsibility is the solution to insecurity would be demagogic and hypocritical. If we do not generate more effective prevention and repression methods, we are doomed,” he said. All political experts agreed that with this position he is attempting to move towards the centre. As they indicate, he may be avoiding not to focus on that topic, which “seems reasonable” because he should broaden his electorate and “differentiate from Bordaberry,” said Bottinelli.

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